Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

An Analysis of the Annual and Seasonal Trends of Air Quality Index of Delhi

The Air Quality Index (AQI) is an index for reporting daily air quality. A study on the annual and seasonal variations of Air Quality Index over a period of 9 years (1996-2004) based on daily averaged concentration data of criteria air pollutants has been conducted for Delhi. An attempt has been made to quantify the changes in the AQI on annual and seasonal (winter, summer, monsoon and post monsoon) basis for 9 years. Measurements for the seven monitoring sites (Nizamuddin, Ashok Vihar, Shahzada Baug, Shahadara, Janakpuri, Sirifort and ITO) in Delhi were analysed and trends were also compared amongst these sites. Maximum Operator Function method was used to compute the Air Quality Index of the above areas and percentage variations in different severity class is discussed which provides in depth analysis of the trends. The best air quality was depicted by Shahzada Baug followed by Shahdara, both of these were classified as industrial areas indicating that policy measures relating to the industries in the city during past years have helped in improving the air quality. The air quality in other areas have improved slightly in the span of nine years but still remains critical indicating continued rigorous efforts in this direction. Increased traffic density seems to have resulted into the worst air quality at ITO in the city amongst all the monitoring stations. There is a shift for the worst AQI in the city from winter to summer season in a time span of these nine years. Change of season for worst AQI from Winter to Summer may also be likely due to increased photochemical reactions playing major role with change in the nature of emissions imposed due to different control measures such as CNG implementation, significant shift to LPG in domestic sector etc. calling for a detailed study, those which started after the year 2000. After the year 2000, there is a significant increase in the Nitrogen-dioxide (NO(2)) concentration at all stations. ITO which has shown continuous exponential increase in pollution levels has first time showed a declining AQI trend in the year 2004 and one of the contributing factors could have been the Delhi metro (initiated in 2002) passing through congested neighbouring areas causing traffic decongestion here. In general, the areas which are farthest from metro route viz., Siri-fort, Nizamuddin, Janakpuri etc. did not record declining AQI in 2003 onwards as happened with stations closer to Metro route such as Ashok Vihar and ITO. An attempt has been made to quantify the reasons that lead to the changes in the values of the AQI.     

Prenatal diagnosis of mosaicism for triploidy and trisomy 13

Mosaicism for trisomy 13 and triploidy was detected by amniocentesis performed at 18 weeks' gestation because of fetal anomalies. Pregnancy continued and a live-born male was delivered vaginally at 37 weeks. The infant had features common to both trisomy 13 and triploidy: intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), small abnormal ears, cleft palate, and a small jaw. In addition, he had complete cutaneous syndactyly of fingers 3 and 4 and partial syndactyly of the toes, as seen in triploidy. Mixoploidy for trisomy 13 and triploidy was confirmed postnatally in blood, skin, and placenta. Examination of chromosome heteromorphisms and DNA markers suggested the presence of two maternal contributions in the triploid cell line. In addition, the extra chromosome 13 in the trisomic cell line was derived from the mother. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of vitamin A in the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) in the rat.

The haematotoxicity of technical hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) (1000 ppm) was investigated in male albino rats fed with diet free of vitamin A or containing vitamin A at 2000 or 10(5) I.U./kg. Assessment of HCH-induced haematotoxicity at the end of the 7 weeks feeding period was done on the basis of haemoglobin content, total count of red blood cells and white blood cells and the differential counts of the white blood cells as well as by parameters such as packed cell volume, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular haemoglobin, mean corpuscular haemoglobin content, prothrombin time and clotting time. In the rats fed with vitamin A-free diet containing HCH, significant reductions were noticed in the total white blood cells count, clotting time and prothrombin time indicating severe haematotoxicity. Differential count of the white blood cells of these rats revealed a non-significant reduction in the lymphocyte count. The only indication of haematotoxicity caused by hexachlorocyclohexane in the vitamin A supplemented rats was a slight but statistically significant reduction of the total count of white blood cells. These results demonstrate that the haematotoxicity of hexachlorocyclohexane in the rats is enhanced by vitamin A-deficiency and its supplementation particularly in excess but not at hypervitaminotic level is protective against the toxicity.     

EFFECTS OF ADJACENT AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES AND WATERSHED CHARACTERISTICS ON STREAM MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITIES1

Benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams adjacent to cornfields, streams where cows had unrestricted access, and reference locations without agriculture were compared to examine the effects of local land use and land use/land cover in the watershed. At each local site, macroinvertebrates and a variety of habitat parameters were measured upstream, adjacent, downstream, and farther downstream of the local land use. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to calculate drainage basin area, land use/land cover percentages in each basin, and the distance from sample sites to the stream source. Three‐way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) tests with date, site type, and sampling location as main effects were used to explore differences in macroinvertebrate metrics using median substrate size, percent hay/pasture area, and stream depth as covariates. The covariates significantly improved model fit and showed that multiple contributing factors influence community composition. Local impacts were greatest at sites where cows had access, probably because of sedimentation and embeddedness in the substrate. Differences between the upstream and the adjacent and downstream locations were not as great as expected, perhaps because upstream recolonization was reduced by agricultural impacts or because of differences in the intensity or proximity of agriculture to riparian areas in the watershed. The results underscore the importance of both local and watershed factors in controlling stream community composition.     

Partitioning and removal of perfluorooctanoate during rain events: the importance of physical-chemical properties

The potential for airborne emissions to undergo long-range transport or to be removed from the atmosphere is influenced by their physical-chemical properties. When perfluorooctanate (PFO) enters the environment, its physical-chemical properties can vary significantly, depending on whether it exists as an acid, a salt, or a dissociated ion. A summary of the physical-chemical properties of the three most likely environmental states: ammonium perfluorooctanoate (APFO), perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and the dissociated perfluorooctanoate anion (PFO(-)) is presented to illustrate the distinct environmental properties of each. The most volatile species, PFOA, is shown to have a pH-dependent air-water partitioning coefficient (K(aw)). The variability of K(aw) with pH influences the potential for vapor formation from aqueous environments, including rain events. Using the pH-dependent K(aw) and measured rain and air concentrations, it is shown that vapor-phase PFOA is not likely to be present above measurable levels of 0.2 ng m(-3) (12 parts per quadrillion v/v) during a rain event. Because rain concentrations determined in this work are comparable to measurements in other parts of North America, it is unlikely that rain events are a significant source of vapor-phase PFOA for the general North American region. It is shown that PFOA exists primarily in the particle phase in ambient air near direct sources of emissions and is efficiently scavenged by rain droplets, making wet deposition an important removal mechanism for emissions originating as either PFOA or APFO. Washout ratios of particle-associated PFO were determined to range between 1 x 10(5) and 5 x 10(5), in the same range as other semi-volatile compounds for which wet deposition is an important mechanism for atmospheric removal and deposition onto soils and water bodies.     

Farmer Premiums for the Voluntary Adoption of Conservation Plans

Programs that reimburse farmers for the cost of implementing more environmentally benign management practices are becoming increasingly popular in both the US and the EU. Utilizing the random utility and random profit difference approaches, the paper develops a theoretical model that explains why farmers may require a premium in excess of the decrease in profits to adopt a conservation plan, and may even require a premium in the case where adoption of the plan is associated with a mean increase in profits. This premium is estimated using a survey of farmers in conjunction with predictions of changes in production costs.     

Sources, distribution, and risk assessment of organochlorine pesticides in Nairobi City, Kenya

The distribution and sources of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in air and surface waters were monitored in Nairobi City using triolein-filled semipermeable membrane devices (SPMDs). The SPMDs were extracted by dialysis using n-hexane, followed by cleanup by adsorption chromatography on silica gel cartridges. Sample analysis was done by GC-ECD and confirmed by GC–MS. Separation of means was achieved by analysis of variance, followed by pair-wise comparison using the t-test (p≤ 0.05). The total OCPs ranged between 0.018 – 1.277 ng/m³ in the air and <LOD – 1391.000 ng/m³ in surface waters. Based on the results, the means of Industrial Area, Dandora and Kibera were not significantly different (p≤ 0.05), but were higher (p≤ 0.05) than those of City square and Ngong’ Forest. The results revealed non-significant (p≤ 0.05) contribution of long-range transport to OCP pollution in Nairobi City. This indicated possible presence of point sources of environmental OCPs in the city. The water-air fugacity ratios indicated that volatilization and deposition played an important role in the spatial distribution of OCPs in Nairobi City. This indicated that contaminated surface waters could be major sources of human exposure to OCPs, through volatilization. The incremental lifetime cancer risks (ILCR) determined from inhalation of atmospheric OCPs were 2.3745  ×  10^?13 – 1.6845  ×  10^?11 (adult) and 5.5404  ×  10^?13 – 3.9306  ×  10^?11 (child) in the order: Dandora > Kibera > Industrial Area > City Square > Ngong’ Forest. However, these were lower than the USEPA acceptable risks, 10^?6 – 10^?4. This study concluded that atmospheric OCPs did not pose significant cancer risks to the residents.